Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 29.133763 32.135601 35.462231 39.450863 44.141807 49.532355 5.626750e+01
2025-07-20 24.321909 28.225494 32.903654 39.030436 47.011715 57.312517 7.207270e+01
2025-07-27 21.479803 25.899177 31.525281 39.440737 50.698945 66.865291 9.343186e+01
2025-08-03 19.205267 23.825450 29.983057 39.150329 53.172759 75.288005 1.166981e+02
2025-08-10 17.460371 22.155100 28.647133 38.777100 55.277569 83.622032 1.439721e+02
2025-08-17 16.200697 20.962976 27.765304 38.839209 57.969942 93.710901 1.809419e+02
2025-08-24 15.051537 19.783676 26.722672 38.423267 59.680072 102.496401 2.217917e+02
2025-08-31 14.094771 18.779580 25.808769 38.039427 61.310272 111.687189 2.727040e+02
2025-09-07 13.271372 17.893580 24.970520 37.635694 62.779668 121.102676 3.361108e+02
2025-09-14 12.591883 17.165209 24.300822 37.416791 64.554899 132.060578 4.234229e+02
2025-09-21 11.929130 16.409407 23.509942 36.857518 65.472613 141.228959 5.226203e+02
2025-09-28 11.734041 16.368609 23.895057 38.556430 71.861740 169.962961 8.370328e+02
2025-10-05 11.223795 15.796952 23.340806 38.381890 73.903849 186.735080 1.171393e+03
2025-10-12 10.790869 15.323117 22.917777 38.422668 76.551200 208.030553 1.788159e+03
2025-10-19 10.474469 15.019209 22.767746 39.011152 80.852639 240.191604 3.354065e+03
2025-10-26 10.075507 14.550550 22.278288 38.802014 82.904670 264.844095 6.247179e+03
2025-11-02 9.693289 14.087134 21.761225 38.464764 84.522217 289.668047 1.381217e+04
2025-11-09 9.392613 13.745474 21.444211 38.538938 87.462660 326.384604 6.767626e+04
2025-11-16 9.057466 13.325404 20.946894 38.132916 88.781233 355.677868 7.277355e+06
2025-11-23 8.749872 12.937570 20.484429 37.755449 90.129724 388.361497 NaN
2025-11-30 8.461214 12.568843 20.034399 37.357009 91.333474 423.280393 NaN
2025-12-07 8.211164 12.256601 19.674778 37.140843 93.176285 469.008761 NaN
2025-12-14 7.942017 11.898048 19.201042 36.587786 93.637787 503.986200 NaN